With Hillary’s decreasing popularity and Trump’s increasing, do you think this election is going to be a slam dunk for Trump?
Trump has already closed to within the margin of error in a Reuters poll, trailing her last in last Thursday’s 5-day rolling average by just 1.2 percentage points.
In the NBC News weekly tracking poll, conducted online by the SurveyMonkey company, Trump and Clinton hold strong command of their bases. But The billionaire Republican has a strong 8-point advantage among self-described ‘independent’ voters.
Those voters, the unwashed middle of the nation’s political bell curve, will be the most sought-after and most heavily targeted in the general election, with both sides trying to capture their attention and win their loyalty – especially in the crucial swing states where either Clinton or Trump could prevail.
Unlike in past election cycles, however, ‘independent’ voters and ‘moderate’ voters don’t overlap neatly.
Clinton is beating Trump handily among self-described ‘moderates,’ by a 53-39 gap.
That suggests that ‘independent’ voters this year are spread all across the political spectrum and not confined to that group who are torn between opposing political poles.
Instead they appear to be a more ideologically diverse group, and their strong preference for Trump suggests that there may be a rich vein of right-leaning ‘independents’ who aren’t firmly in the Republican fold – perhaps because they’re not frequent voters – but are now warming to his message.
In other news sure to buoy Team Trump, the BNC News poll found Republican voters trust him more than House Speaker Paul Ryan to lead the GOP.
The size of that margin, a 58-39 spread, will give Trump new leverage as he tries to persuade moderate Republicans to fall in line behind him.
That group favors Trump over Ryan, as do the segments of the party that are more conservative.