Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican presidential race — in both polling and media attention. But in a new Quinnipiac University national poll on the 2016 field, it’s Ted Cruz who looks like the candidate you may want to bet on.
In the ballot test, Cruz has 16 percent support — and is in a statistical tie for second place with Ben Carson and Marco Rubio. Carson is very much headed in the wrong direction; he was at 23 percent in a Q poll conducted a month ago and is down seven points. Rubio is moving in the right direction (up three points from last month, to 17 percent), as is Cruz (up three points). And, Cruz’s trend line is quite clear and quite good. He was at 5 percent in a Q poll in late July, 7 percent in a September poll and 16 now. Trend lines matter more than anything else in national primary polling, and no one this side of Rubio has a better trend line than Cruz.
Dig deeper into the findings and things look even better for the senator from Texas. Although Cruz is at 16 percent among all Republicans, he runs significantly stronger among three subgroups: “very” conservative voters, tea party supporters and white born-again/evangelical voters. Those subgroups are also the three most important and powerful when it comes to deciding the GOP nominee in 2016.
Among tea partyers, Cruz is tied with Donald Trump at 29 percent — well ahead of Carson at 17 percent and Rubio at 12. Among evangelicals, Cruz and Trump, again, are tied — this time at 24 percent — with Carson at 19 percent and Rubio at 13. Twenty nine percent of those who identify as “very” conservative choose Cruz, while Trump takes 25 percent, Carson 15 percent and Rubio 11 percent.
The Q poll also shows that Cruz has one very clear edge over Trump as the race moves forward: Almost no one said they wouldn’t support him. Just six percent said they could never back Cruz — a number matched only by Rubio, at 5 percent. By contrast, more than one in four Republicans (26 percent) say they could never vote for Trump, the highest of any candidate in the contest. (Amazingly Jeb Bush, who gets just 5 percent of the vote in the primary ballot, is second on the “won’t vote for” question, with 21 percent.)
Read more: The Washington Post