We all knew this, now it’s confirmed. Thanks to Wikileaks we know the how and why Clinton’s campaign oversamples and sends the info to media pollsters. These oversampled polls are showing Clinton is dominating this election (obviously). If that’s true, then why is Hillary’s “average” rally attendance 380 people, and Trump’s average is 7k? And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
By Amy Moreno
At first, the pollsters were wildly oversampling Democrats – however, they got called out in that mercilessly, so now they’ve switched to oversampling women and “degreed people” who tend to favor Hillary.
They do this to get the polling result they need to promote their narrative that Hillary is CRUSHING Trump and it’s HOPELESS for Trump.
According to the Wikileaks email, the Clinton campaign gathers all their “oversampling” data and then feeds it to their MEDIA POLLSTERS.
— Johnny (@thecrazycannuck) October 23, 2016
Some history about Atlas. For more information, here is their site.
Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections was started as a paper hobby after the 1992 Presidential Election. I was 22 and attending graduate school at MIT. I made a photocopy of a U.S. map (with county boundaries) from one of the libraries and filled in counties with colored pen according to the winner. There were only two percentage points – above 45% and below 45%. I used the data for Perot, Clinton, and Bush that was published in the 1993 World Almanac and Book of Facts (there were no minor party data).
Atlas polls and graphics, based on past results, don’t make a lot of sense. States that have been primarily Republican are shown to be more Democratic or just slightly Republican.
An example is the North Dakota poll. This state has historically voted Republican. Many sites are claiming ND for Trump. Atlas? They claimed it for Hillary.
Now, does this make sense to you? I think not.
The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations. In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:
Research, microtargeting & polling projects
– Over-sample Hispanics
– Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
– Over-sample the Native American population
For Florida, the report recommends “consistently monitoring” samples to makes sure they’re “not too old” and “has enough African American and Hispanic voters.” Meanwhile, “independent” voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.
– Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
– On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
Meanwhile, it’s suggested that national polls over sample “key districts / regions” and “ethnic” groups “as needed.”
– General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
– Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
– Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed
Here, Illinois blamed their voting problems on a “calibration error”.
Early voting in Illinois got off to a rocky start Monday, as votes being cast for Republican candidates were transformed into votes for Democrats.
The conservative website Illinois Review reported:
While using a touch screen voting machine in Schaumburg, Moynihan voted for several races on the ballot, only to find that whenever he voted for a Republican candidate, the machine registered the vote for a Democrat in the same race. He notified the election judge at his polling place and demonstrated that it continued to cast a vote for the opposing candidate’s party. Moynihan was eventually allowed to vote for Republican candidates, including his own race.
Cook County Clerk’s Office Deputy Communications Director Jim Scalzitti, told Illinois Watchdog, the machine was taken out of service and tested:
This was a calibration error of the touch-screen on the machine. When Mr. Moynihan used the touch-screen, it improperly assigned his votes due to improper calibration.